The 2025 Santorini - Amorgos zone crisis
- Volcanologist Dr Janine Krippner
Last updated: 17 Feb 2025 (New Zealand time) 16 February Greece timeThe Greek version of this page is here, updates may be staggered, this is a joint effort with Sandy Drymoni
With the ongoing crisis in the area around Santorini in Greece, here are links to websites and information that we will update as we see it. I am working behind the scenes with scientists around the world to watch out for questions, misinformation, and concerns, and provide information where we can. There is high uncertainty involved.
This is a very complex and evolving situation and we do not know where this will lead. Our thoughts are with the local communities experiencing the activity, and the local scientists working tirelessly to figure out what is happening.
"The volcano has gone from a state of calm. This does not mean that we will be led to an eruption. Usually, most volcanoes that "wake up" return to a state of calm. Because a volcanic eruption is always possible, we are monitoring all the data to see what happens," he added.
"Obviously the possibility of a more unfavorable development later cannot be ruled out, but it is something that we are monitoring independently," concluded Mr. Papazachos. 12 February 2025https://www.ieidiseis.gr/ellada/279181/papazaxos-gia-santorini-pithani-i-ekriksi-tou-ifaisteiou-den-apokleietai-i-dysmenesteri-ekseliksi
- "People may be afraid of a volcano, but seismic activity within the island can be a bigger problem than the volcano. So, be calm and disciplined. People must have common sense and follow the instructions of the Civil Protection. Fear and panic have never helped. The first step is self-protection. Know where your loved ones are at all times, do not have dangerous objects above your bed, have the documents you need to take with you in case of evacuation ready. We are not in 1950. If there is trust in the State and basic things are done by citizens, the risk is minimized." - volcanologist Stavros Meletlidis, 7 February 2025, https://eleftherostypos.gr/ellada/ta-ifaisteia-proeidopoioun-ti-lei-ston-et-ifaisteiologos-stavros-meletlidis-gia-ti-santorini
- Mr. Meletlidis said that volcanoes warn before an eruption, explaining that this can come by moving earthquakes to the surface, even if their intensity is lower. “In general, volcanoes warn days and hours before an eruption. It will be seen from a movement of earthquakes to lesser depths. If we make a graph in three dimensions, we will be able to see that earthquakes are moving to the surface, which is the volcano. - Stavros Meletlidis, 3 February 2025. https://www.athensvoice.gr/epikairotita/ellada/888763/ifaisteiologos-gia-tous-seismous-sti-sadorini-mesa-stis-pithanotites-na-ehoume-ekrixi-tou-ifaisteiou/
Advice on what to do before, during, and after earthquakes
Everywhere in Greece has some degree of risk for large earthquakes, and locals are experiencing frequent events. It is always a good idea, no matter where we are, to refresh our memories on what to do before, during, and after an earthquake.
Potential tsunami hazard information
- Tsunami Warning Center on high alert amid seismic activity near Santorini, 12 February 2025. “Experts at the National Tsunami Warning Center have been closely monitoring the waters off Santorini due to increased seismic activity in the area over the past few days.
To enhance their ability to track sea level changes, a specialized team from the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens installed a new tide gauge on Santorini’s northeastern coast on Monday. However, Charalambakis reassures that there is currently no increased risk of a tsunami, as the seismic activity remains below magnitude 5.0"
Self-protection advice from the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Centre: http://hl-ntwc.gein.noa.gr/en/activities.html
- In case of an earthquake or of unusual sea level change (e.g. water fall or rise) do not gather at the beach.
- In such cases leave the beach immediately and run in higher ground inland.
- Encourage others (e.g. family members, friends) to do so.
- Also, stay away from rivers and streams that lead to the ocean, tsunamis travel easily through river channels.
- Follow the official announcements through the media.
- Usually a tsunami is not a single wave but a series of waves. The danger from a tsunami can last for several hours.
- Don’t go to the beach until a few hours have passed from the earthquake or an official announcement declares it is safe to go there.
- Boat owners can take their vessels out to sea if there is time and if permission is given by port authorities.
- People should not stay on boats moored in harbours since tsunamis may destroy boats.
- Vessels should not return to port if they are at sea and an earthquake has been felt onboard or tsunami warning has been issued for the area.
Addressing misinformation
Blog post by Janine on how to identify AI/fake videos of Santorini erupting, 13 February 2025: https://inthecompanyofvolcanoes.blogspot.com/2025/02/volcano-misinformation-gets-tricky-with.html
- How likely is this activity to cause an eruption?
With the ongoing complex seismicity, the situation is still evolving and we do not know what the likelihood of an eruption is. The two volcanoes mentioned in the media are Santorini, with two volcanic islands in the centre - Nea Kameni and Palea Kameni, and Kolumbo submarine volcano northeast of Santorini.
Even when magma is moving towards the surface, this doesn’t mean that it will reach the surface and result in an eruption. This can end up just being an intrusion - magma rising through the crust but not erupting. If we were to see clear magmatic signals, we cannot tell what sort of eruption will occur, when it would begin, or how large it will be.
In order to forecast an eruption we use a range of monitoring techniques, and it is very helpful to have previously monitored an eruption at that particular volcano so that we have a better understanding of how it behaves.
There are additional challenges monitoring volcanic areas that are under the sea. We cannot use satellite monitoring methods to detect deformation (ground movement), increases in temperature, physical changes, or gas emissions that are being released into the atmosphere. It is more difficult to install and maintain monitoring equipment, we do not have a visual of the volcano, and we cannot easily directly measure gases.
Experts do have seismic data, but it can take a while to untangle all the clues that it gives us about what is happening.
We will keep looking to the local scientists for updates.
Why do scientists refer to the earthquake swarm as tectonic?
This is a complex situation with both tectonic and magmatic processes giving signals in the form of seismicity. Initially it seems the signals were more tectonic, and over time magmatic signals may have become more clear. It is important to distinguish here that magmatic processes do not mean an eruption. Magma moving kilometres below the surface does not guarantee that it will erupt, and if it does, it does not tell us when.
When volcanoes shake, a brief explainer on seismicity in volcanic areas by Janine Krippner, 13 February 2025: https://www.teawamutunews.nz/2025/02/when-volcanoes-shake/
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Questions and answers about the earthquakes near Santorini, 7 February 2025: https://www.gfz.de/en/press/news/details/fragen-und-antworten-zu-den-erdbeben-bei-santorini
INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy) update, 5 February 2025: https://ingvterremoti.com/2025/02/05/i-terremoti-a-santorini-isole-cicladi-grecia-febbraio-2025/
Earthquake swarm explainer by Judith A Hubbard and Kyle Bradley, 4 February 2025: https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/earthquake-swarm-beneath-the-aegean
Thinking about making a plan, just in case
It is important to have a discussion with your household about what you will do and what you might want to take if the time comes to evacuate. There are websites with more information on making a plan (in English): https://getready.govt.nz/prepared/household and here https://www.state.gov/global-community-liaison-office/crisis-management/packing-a-go-bag-and-a-stay-bag/
Here are some items to consider having in a place ready to go in case you need to:
Have a chat about things like where you would go, where you would meet your family in case of an emergency if you are separated, and have a conversation with your neighbours in case you have pets that need to be checked on if you are away from home initially.
Mental health concerns
We want to acknowledge that this is a distressing time for all involved. We will be keeping an eye out for local resources that take into account the local culture and context, and for now we share some international examples. It is critical to practice self care as it is normal to not feel okay during events like this.
“Alert fatigue prevails in Santorini. Island residents affected by constant tremors, try to tune out rumors of disasters to come“ https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/environment/1261857/alert-fatigue-prevails-in-santorini/
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The stress of being under threat: for people who are under threat from an emergency, from Queensland, Australia
“If the threat goes on too long: going into emergency threat stress Because these changes are designed to get us ready for the emergency, if they go on too long, our state of mind and body can be aroused for too long and lose their efficiency. This can interfere with our readiness and then we become stressed by the threat. This can be called emergency threat stress and is common when there is a long lead up to an emergency, a lot of uncertainty about the situation or where the emergency continues without being resolved. If we are to remain in the best state of readiness, we need to recognise and manage the stress so it does not undermine our ability to meet the crisis when it comes. Signs that emergency alert is turning into emergency threat stress are:
Signs that emergency alert is turning into emergency threat stress are:
• Loss of energy, tiredness, physical weakness
• Difficulty thinking clearly, making decisions, planning, setting priorities
• Focussing on details at the expense of the big picture
• Feeling fearful about meeting the crisis, wanting to avoid it
• Thinking about what might happen rather than what needs to be done
• Unrealistic thinking - perhaps it will go away, it might not happen after all
• Losing focus on the real situation, becoming preoccupied by emotions
• Losing sense of bodily needs - working too long or hard without nourishment or rest
• Taking risks, working inefficiently, ineffectively; doing things without proper planning
• Not being able to put emotions aside, being preoccupied by fear, anger, blaming, irritability, tearful, detached, feeling hopeless, giving up.”
With the ongoing crisis in the area around Santorini in Greece, here are links to websites and information that we will update as we see it. I am working behind the scenes with scientists around the world to watch out for questions, misinformation, and concerns, and provide information where we can. There is high uncertainty involved.
We are not forecasting what might happen next, we are not an observatory. This is simply to try to help with providing information in one place.
Interviews with local/Greek experts or local sources
An important note: Please use the links provided to read more comments about the situation, dates are provided. Events are complex and changing, and even when signals indicate magma or fluid movement this does not mean an eruption is imminent. Scientists have also discussed the risk of a larger earthquake in the area, but this is also uncertain. It is normal early on in a situation to have different scenarios under consideration, and different possible interpretations of what the early data is saying. Please see the ‘Addressing questions’ section further down this page for more broad context.
- Santorini earthquake outlook remains uncertain, expert says. “Unfortunately, for now, we must wait. These seismic sequences do not end quickly. They follow their own timeline,” seismologist Costas Papazachos told state-run ERT radio on Monday… “The root cause of the activity is the interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes,” he said. “That does not mean that the molten material – the magma – will manage to break through 8 kilometers of crust and reach the surface, causing a new volcanic eruption.”
Scientists were developing a clearer picture after gathering data from multiple sensors, he said.
“We are monitoring not only seismographs but also numerous other systems that track ground deformation, gas emissions, and satellite data,” he said. “At this moment, I can honestly say we do not have a definitive forecast, as it is too early to assess the current slight de-escalation of seismic activity. We have encountered many surprises.” 17 February 2025
- Scientists explain what this rumbling from underground is - "Yesterday's tremors in Santorini were clearly volcanic," says Synolakis…"
Mr. Papanikolaou pointed out that it is common to hear noises during earthquakes. "Small surface earthquakes, since they break, when the rock breaks and causes the earthquake, the friction that causes the breaking is what spreads especially through the sea and this hum reaches everywhere," he said.He expressed the hope that this calm that has prevailed in recent days "will, let's hope, actually be some de-escalation." "We have to be very careful, cautious. We will be patient for a few days to see how things develop," he emphasized.
- Interview with Dimitris Papanikolaou: “The emeritus professor of Geology and researcher of Santorini's volcanoes explains why we are living in historic times. When did scientists start to worry, the three "zones" on the island, the movement of magma, the volcanic chain of Kolumbo cones and the intense years of the 1980s and 1990s” 14 February 2025. https://www.kathimerini.gr/opinion/interviews/563468665/i-sminoseira-sti-santorini-kai-ta-richter-stin-koinotita-ton-seismologon/
- Earthquakes in the Cyclades: Ios also in a state of emergency: “On Sunday 16/2 at 9:00 in the morning, the two committees (the Permanent Scientific Committee for Seismic Hazard Assessment and Seismic Hazard Reduction and the Permanent Scientific Committee for Monitoring the Greek Volcanic Arc of the Hellenic Association of Geophysical Surveys) are expected to meet, regarding seismic activity in the maritime area of Anydros, between Santorini and Amorgos… All scenarios are possible, scientists will say, regarding the connection between the volcano and the [earthquakes]." 14 February 2025 https://www.tovima.gr/2025/02/14/society/seismoi-stis-kyklades-se-katastasi-ektaktis-anagkis-kai-i-ios/#google_vignette
- Evi Nomikou (professor of Geology at the National Kapodistrian University of Athens) on ERTNews: "We have no indications of an eruption at the underwater volcano of Kolumbo" 12 February 2025: https://www.ertnews.gr/dimosio-vima/arthrografia/eyi-nomikou-sto-ertnews-den-exoume-endeikseis-gia-ekriksi-sto-ypothalassio-ifaisteio-tou-koloumpou/?amp=
- Nomikou on SKAI: "What worries us about the shift in the epicenters of earthquakes - Analysis with maps", 12 February 2025: https://www.skai.gr/news/greece/nomikou-ston-skai-ti-mas-anisyxei-apo-ti-metatopisi-sta-epikentra-ton-seismon#j32jajmo7qhb9pr4fm3vjextt2f8jcz68
- What's happening in Santorini? An update with some history of the Greek volcanic arc by Associate Professor of Petrology D. Kostopoulos and Professor of Igneous Rock Petrology P. Pomonis at the Department of Geology and Geoenvironment of the National University of Athens. “The wider area of Santorini is undoubtedly in intense tectonic and magmatic agitation and its recent explosive past does not allow for complacency.” 12 February 2025 https://www.kathimerini.gr/opinion/guests/563466622/ti-symvainei-sti-santorini/
- As he noted, this sequence moves along the Anydros fault and stressed that "the situation for the residents of the Cyclades is difficult." Regarding what is expected from now on, Mr. Papazachos stated: "The dimension of the fault that has been triggered in Anhidros and the continuation of the seismic sequence make a stronger earthquake possible. However, fortunately, Anhidros is located at a great distance from the other islands, which means that in the event of a larger earthquake - and since an island is located outside the fault zone - the damage will be more limited."
This page has been started on 14 February 2025 (from New Zealand) and more will continue to be added until I indicate up the top that this is no longer being updated.
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Information sources in Greece:
Civil Protection updates: https://civilprotection.gov.gr/deltia-tupou
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Santorini Municipality Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/santorinimunicipality
Is there increased volcanic activity in Kolumbo? Scientists are scanning the area with special instruments, 13 February 2025: https://www.skai.gr/news/greece/seismoi-santorini-elegxoun-to-ifaisteio-koloumpo-kai-ta-rigmata-gia-aeria
Daily monitoring updates are given here: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens communications hub https://hub.uoa.gr/
Example: Saturday 15/2/2025 (seismicity up to and including February 14, 2025) | Interdisciplinary Committee for Risk and Crisis Management of the National University of Athens https://hub.uoa.gr/ektakti-anakoinosi-savvato-15-2-2025-seismikotita-eos-kai-14-fevrouariou-2025-diepistimoniki-epitropi-diacheirisis-kindynon-kai-kriseon-ekpa/
Many of these resources are in Greek, I find that Google Chrome is good to use for the simple 'translate to English' option when you right-click on the page.
Information sources in Greece:
Civil Protection updates: https://civilprotection.gov.gr/deltia-tupou
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Announcement from the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection, 16 February 2025 (Translated to English, original text is in the link)
This morning, the president of the OASP, Professor Efthimios Lekkas, convened a joint meeting of the two Committees (the Permanent Scientific Committee for Seismic Hazard Assessment and Seismic Risk Reduction and the Permanent Scientific Committee for Monitoring the Greek Volcanic Arc of the OASP).
The meeting was held at the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection, in the presence of Minister Vassilis Kikilias, Deputy Minister Evangelos Tournas, the Secretary General of Civil Protection Vassilis Papageorgiou, the Secretary General of Natural Disaster Rehabilitation and State Aid Petros Kampouris, the Commander of the Construction and Natural Disaster Response Administration (DIKAFKA) of the Hellenic National Defense General Staff Lieutenant General Michael Klouvas, as well as representatives of the leadership of the Fire Department.
After discussion among the members of the Committees and the presentation and examination of all the data so far, the following are unanimously stated:
1. The seismic sequence in the sea area of Anydros between Thira and Amorgos shows a relative decline, with approximately 1,300 earthquakes from February 1 to today with a magnitude above 3.0 (and with a maximum recorded magnitude of M 5.3).
2. The current seismic activity in the area of the island of Anydros is due to submarine faults with a NE-SW direction and is part of the broader geodynamic framework of the area. According to the available data, this activity is due to a combination of tectonics and deeper magmatism.
3.Seismic activity within the caldera remains at the same levels, while increased ground deformation is observed in the wider area of Santorini, which is constantly monitored.
4. Public buildings, based on the inspections carried out so far, have demonstrated very good behavior under seismic loads.
5. The Committees recall the following preventive measures:
Citizens should:
-Avoid large gatherings inside buildings.
-Avoid approaching abandoned buildings.
-Avoid accessing and staying in the ports of Ammoudi, Armeni, Korfou and the Old Port of Fira.
-To proceed with the removal of dangerous non-structural vulnerability elements in their buildings (heavy hanging objects, false ceilings, etc.) and the emptying of water in swimming pools.
-To choose safe routes when moving within the urban fabric and the provincial road network, especially in places where there are strong morphological gradients and landslides are likely to occur.
-There should be immediate evacuation from coastal areas in the event of strong seismic shaking.
-Schools to remain closed until Friday, February 21, 2025 in Thira, Ios, Anafi and Amorgos.
The Committees will meet again on Wednesday, February 19, 2025 at 6:00 p.m.
Regarding the information of citizens on earthquake protection issues, more information can be found on the websites of the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization (www.oasp.gr) and the Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection (www.civilprotection.gr).
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Previous Civil Protection Announcement on Saturday, February 08, 2025
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Santorini Municipality Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/santorinimunicipality
6th Decision on Taking Preventive Civil Protection Measures Due to the Current Seismic Activity in the Thira Area (16 February 2025; Translated to English, original text is in the link)
The responsible Deputy Mayor of Thira for Civil Protection, updating the preventive protection measures, informs our fellow citizens of the following:
A. The suspension of the operation of educational units in the Municipality of Thira (nurseries, kindergartens, primary and secondary education) until Friday, 21/2/2025.
B. The cancellation of scheduled events and gatherings in closed spaces of the Municipality of Thira until Friday, 21/2/2025.
C. The avoidance of access and stay in Ammoudi, Armeni, the Old Port of Fira, and Korfos Thirasia.
D. Informing citizens: to avoid approaching abandoned buildings, to choose safe routes during their movement within the urban fabric and the provincial road network, especially in areas with steep morphological slopes where landslides may occur, to immediately move away from coastal areas in case of a strong seismic tremor, to remove dangerous non-structural vulnerability elements in their buildings (heavy hanging objects, false ceilings, etc.),
E. The immediate drainage of water in swimming pools,
F. The avoidance of access and stay in the port of Athinios, except during ship docking hours,
G. The prohibition of all kinds of construction work only in the Caldera area of the Municipality of Thira until Sunday, 23/2/2025. Interventions for municipal and public works are excluded,
H. The prohibition of approaching the area around Goulas of Emporio, I. The prohibition of concrete pouring and construction work requiring scaffolding, as well as the removal of existing scaffolding throughout the Municipality of Thira until further notice.
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Monitoring information
Daily monitoring updates are given here: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens communications hub https://hub.uoa.gr/
Example: Saturday 15/2/2025 (seismicity up to and including February 14, 2025) | Interdisciplinary Committee for Risk and Crisis Management of the National University of Athens https://hub.uoa.gr/ektakti-anakoinosi-savvato-15-2-2025-seismikotita-eos-kai-14-fevrouariou-2025-diepistimoniki-epitropi-diacheirisis-kindynon-kai-kriseon-ekpa/
The SANTORY program who are part of monitoring efforts of Kolumbo volcano: https://www.facebook.com/santoryproject
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An important note: Please use the links provided to read more comments about the situation, dates are provided. Events are complex and changing, and even when signals indicate magma or fluid movement this does not mean an eruption is imminent. Scientists have also discussed the risk of a larger earthquake in the area, but this is also uncertain. It is normal early on in a situation to have different scenarios under consideration, and different possible interpretations of what the early data is saying. Please see the ‘Addressing questions’ section further down this page for more broad context.
Here are a range of comments by Greek/local scientists, and examples of local websites where you can keep an eye out for more information. In situations with high uncertainty like this one, we need to be mindful that it is still unfolding, know where to look for more information, be very wary of misinformation, and if you are local, know what you need to do to be prepared just in case.
Translations from Greek below.
- Evi Nomikou: “We should not confuse volcanic activity with magmatic processes” "We should not confuse volcanic activity with the magmatic processes that occur in the bowels of the earth," explains the scientist, clarifying that the magmatic processes that occur in the bowels of the earth are a different phenomenon and, as she adds, "they always happen" from the volcanic eruption that occurs on the surface of the seabed or in Nea Kameni… "It is an area that we know is a seismic area that has many fault zones, many faults that have been activated and according to the findings of the committees, there are some very deep magmatic processes, a diapiric material which, the fluids, as in any case, rise to the surface, create gravitational movements, therefore we have the movements of the faults as they are."... 17 February 2025 https://cyclades24.gr/2025/02/evi-nomikou-den-prepei-na-berdevoume-tin-ifaisteiaki-drastiriotita-me-tis-magmatikes-diergasies/#google_vignette
- Vasilis Kikilias: Prevention, preparation and organization for all scenarios. “The Minister of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection, Vassilis Kikilias, in an interview on ANT1's "Good Morning Greece" show with journalist Giorgos Papadakis, referred to the seismic activity recorded in Santorini, the preventive measures taken by the State and the overall operational readiness of the state mechanism. As Mr. Kikilias emphasized, "scientists cannot make accurate predictions about earthquakes, but estimates based on scientific data. This forces us as an organized State to take all necessary preventive measures to protect citizens. The Minister pointed out that there is a possibility of a larger earthquake in the region, which makes constant vigilance and timely preparation necessary. "A large earthquake can cause extensive damage or even a tsunami. The residents of Santorini and the surrounding islands should know that, in the event of a large earthquake, they should immediately leave coastal and low-lying areas and move to safer, higher ground," he stressed.
Referring to volcanic activity, he said that "There is the uniqueness of Santorini with the volcano in Nea Kameni. It has had a slight excitation in recent months. There is the other volcano, Kolumbo. There has been a permanent activation in recent years that has been monitored by scientists from Greece and abroad. There is also a fault, on the route from Santorini to Amorgos, which causes prolonged seismic activity, as there is magma in the bowels of the Earth. The magma is located 5 kilometers down, according to scientists."
- Evi Nomikou: “We should not confuse volcanic activity with magmatic processes” "We should not confuse volcanic activity with the magmatic processes that occur in the bowels of the earth," explains the scientist, clarifying that the magmatic processes that occur in the bowels of the earth are a different phenomenon and, as she adds, "they always happen" from the volcanic eruption that occurs on the surface of the seabed or in Nea Kameni… "It is an area that we know is a seismic area that has many fault zones, many faults that have been activated and according to the findings of the committees, there are some very deep magmatic processes, a diapiric material which, the fluids, as in any case, rise to the surface, create gravitational movements, therefore we have the movements of the faults as they are."... 17 February 2025 https://cyclades24.gr/2025/02/evi-nomikou-den-prepei-na-berdevoume-tin-ifaisteiaki-drastiriotita-me-tis-magmatikes-diergasies/#google_vignette
- Vasilis Kikilias: Prevention, preparation and organization for all scenarios. “The Minister of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection, Vassilis Kikilias, in an interview on ANT1's "Good Morning Greece" show with journalist Giorgos Papadakis, referred to the seismic activity recorded in Santorini, the preventive measures taken by the State and the overall operational readiness of the state mechanism. As Mr. Kikilias emphasized, "scientists cannot make accurate predictions about earthquakes, but estimates based on scientific data. This forces us as an organized State to take all necessary preventive measures to protect citizens. The Minister pointed out that there is a possibility of a larger earthquake in the region, which makes constant vigilance and timely preparation necessary. "A large earthquake can cause extensive damage or even a tsunami. The residents of Santorini and the surrounding islands should know that, in the event of a large earthquake, they should immediately leave coastal and low-lying areas and move to safer, higher ground," he stressed.
Referring to volcanic activity, he said that "There is the uniqueness of Santorini with the volcano in Nea Kameni. It has had a slight excitation in recent months. There is the other volcano, Kolumbo. There has been a permanent activation in recent years that has been monitored by scientists from Greece and abroad. There is also a fault, on the route from Santorini to Amorgos, which causes prolonged seismic activity, as there is magma in the bowels of the Earth. The magma is located 5 kilometers down, according to scientists."
In addition, he confirmed that a small deformation of the ground and movement of the entire island has been recorded, a phenomenon that had also occurred in 2011-2012. "Scientists are monitoring the phenomenon closely. This may evolve at a slow or accelerated pace and is being continuously evaluated," he said.The Minister made special reference to the public debate surrounding seismic activity, calling for restraint and responsibility in statements. "We are talking about people who are not required to know scientific terms - it is our islanders, it is the economy, it is tourism. There is no room for alarmism, but neither for complacency," he stressed… 17 February 2025 https://civilprotection.gov.gr/deltia-tupou/basilis-kikilias-prolipsi-proetoimasia-kai-organosi-gia-ola-ta-senaria
- Santorini earthquake outlook remains uncertain, expert says. “Unfortunately, for now, we must wait. These seismic sequences do not end quickly. They follow their own timeline,” seismologist Costas Papazachos told state-run ERT radio on Monday… “The root cause of the activity is the interaction of tectonic and magmatic processes,” he said. “That does not mean that the molten material – the magma – will manage to break through 8 kilometers of crust and reach the surface, causing a new volcanic eruption.”
Scientists were developing a clearer picture after gathering data from multiple sensors, he said.
“We are monitoring not only seismographs but also numerous other systems that track ground deformation, gas emissions, and satellite data,” he said. “At this moment, I can honestly say we do not have a definitive forecast, as it is too early to assess the current slight de-escalation of seismic activity. We have encountered many surprises.” 17 February 2025
- Scientists explain what this rumbling from underground is - "Yesterday's tremors in Santorini were clearly volcanic," says Synolakis…"
Mr. Papanikolaou pointed out that it is common to hear noises during earthquakes. "Small surface earthquakes, since they break, when the rock breaks and causes the earthquake, the friction that causes the breaking is what spreads especially through the sea and this hum reaches everywhere," he said.He expressed the hope that this calm that has prevailed in recent days "will, let's hope, actually be some de-escalation." "We have to be very careful, cautious. We will be patient for a few days to see how things develop," he emphasized.
The director of the Geodynamic Institute pointed out that "the nature of this seismic sequence is such that it forces us to maintain reservations. There are always fluctuations, but in recent days there has been a decline compared to the first days of the phenomenon. If this trend continues, we can be optimistic." However, he noted that "seismic activity is not examined in isolation. It is important to evaluate other factors, such as ground deformations… Last night, earthquakes of a different type were recorded, indicating that volcanic magma is rising. Although the vibrations stopped within an hour and a half, it was clear that these were purely volcanic earthquakes," Mr. Synolakis told ERT… "Let's leave aside scenarios of "major disasters" that only lead to panic and uncertainty," volcanologist Evi Nomikou asked in a Facebook post... 15 February 2025 ttps://www.skai.gr/news/greece/oi-epistimones-eksigoun-ti-einai-ayto-to-vouito-apo-to-ypedafos-ifaisteiakes-oi-xthesines
- Interview with Dimitris Papanikolaou: “The emeritus professor of Geology and researcher of Santorini's volcanoes explains why we are living in historic times. When did scientists start to worry, the three "zones" on the island, the movement of magma, the volcanic chain of Kolumbo cones and the intense years of the 1980s and 1990s” 14 February 2025. https://www.kathimerini.gr/opinion/interviews/563468665/i-sminoseira-sti-santorini-kai-ta-richter-stin-koinotita-ton-seismologon/
- Earthquakes in the Cyclades: Ios also in a state of emergency: “On Sunday 16/2 at 9:00 in the morning, the two committees (the Permanent Scientific Committee for Seismic Hazard Assessment and Seismic Hazard Reduction and the Permanent Scientific Committee for Monitoring the Greek Volcanic Arc of the Hellenic Association of Geophysical Surveys) are expected to meet, regarding seismic activity in the maritime area of Anydros, between Santorini and Amorgos… All scenarios are possible, scientists will say, regarding the connection between the volcano and the [earthquakes]." 14 February 2025 https://www.tovima.gr/2025/02/14/society/seismoi-stis-kyklades-se-katastasi-ektaktis-anagkis-kai-i-ios/#google_vignette
- Evi Nomikou (professor of Geology at the National Kapodistrian University of Athens) on ERTNews: "We have no indications of an eruption at the underwater volcano of Kolumbo" 12 February 2025: https://www.ertnews.gr/dimosio-vima/arthrografia/eyi-nomikou-sto-ertnews-den-exoume-endeikseis-gia-ekriksi-sto-ypothalassio-ifaisteio-tou-koloumpou/?amp=
"The volcano has gone from a state of calm. This does not mean that we will be led to an eruption. Usually, most volcanoes that "wake up" return to a state of calm. Because a volcanic eruption is always possible, we are monitoring all the data to see what happens," he added.
"Obviously the possibility of a more unfavorable development later cannot be ruled out, but it is something that we are monitoring independently," concluded Mr. Papazachos. 12 February 2025https://www.ieidiseis.gr/ellada/279181/papazaxos-gia-santorini-pithani-i-ekriksi-tou-ifaisteiou-den-apokleietai-i-dysmenesteri-ekseliksi
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In Greek: https://oasp.gr/odigies-aytoprostasias
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- Tsunami Warning Center on high alert amid seismic activity near Santorini, 12 February 2025. “Experts at the National Tsunami Warning Center have been closely monitoring the waters off Santorini due to increased seismic activity in the area over the past few days.
To enhance their ability to track sea level changes, a specialized team from the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens installed a new tide gauge on Santorini’s northeastern coast on Monday. However, Charalambakis reassures that there is currently no increased risk of a tsunami, as the seismic activity remains below magnitude 5.0"
Self-protection advice from the Hellenic National Tsunami Warning Centre: http://hl-ntwc.gein.noa.gr/en/activities.html
- In case of an earthquake or of unusual sea level change (e.g. water fall or rise) do not gather at the beach.
- In such cases leave the beach immediately and run in higher ground inland.
- Encourage others (e.g. family members, friends) to do so.
- Also, stay away from rivers and streams that lead to the ocean, tsunamis travel easily through river channels.
- Follow the official announcements through the media.
- Usually a tsunami is not a single wave but a series of waves. The danger from a tsunami can last for several hours.
- Don’t go to the beach until a few hours have passed from the earthquake or an official announcement declares it is safe to go there.
- Boat owners can take their vessels out to sea if there is time and if permission is given by port authorities.
- People should not stay on boats moored in harbours since tsunamis may destroy boats.
- Vessels should not return to port if they are at sea and an earthquake has been felt onboard or tsunami warning has been issued for the area.
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Websites showing earthquakes in the area
Real Time Seismicity during the last 24 hours by the National observatory of Athens: https://www.gein.noa.gr/en/
Earthquakes of the last 2 days in Greece by the University of Athens: http://www.geophysics.geol.uoa.gr/stations/maps/recent.html
Earthquakes of the last 166 days in the Santorini area by the University of Athens: http://www.geophysics.geol.uoa.gr/stations/gmaps3/santorini_leaf.php
Websites showing earthquakes in the area
Real Time Seismicity during the last 24 hours by the National observatory of Athens: https://www.gein.noa.gr/en/
Earthquakes of the last 2 days in Greece by the University of Athens: http://www.geophysics.geol.uoa.gr/stations/maps/recent.html
Earthquakes of the last 166 days in the Santorini area by the University of Athens: http://www.geophysics.geol.uoa.gr/stations/gmaps3/santorini_leaf.php
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Addressing misinformation
Blog post by Janine on how to identify AI/fake videos of Santorini erupting, 13 February 2025: https://inthecompanyofvolcanoes.blogspot.com/2025/02/volcano-misinformation-gets-tricky-with.html
An article addressing AI and misinformation through images 12 February 2025: https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/02/12/santorini-targeted-by-fake-volcano-eruption-videos
An article addressing misinformation through images, 4 February 2025:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/old-photo-mount-etna-eruption-161223722.html
An article addressing misinformation through images, 4 February 2025:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/old-photo-mount-etna-eruption-161223722.html
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Addressing questions
- What is meant by 'fluids' moving in the crust?
If something is moving below the surface, it could be magma, fluids, or
gases. Fluids can be a mix of water and other components like CO2 that
are released from magma. It can take time and hindsight to work through
the signals to understand what caused them. - From here
There is more discussion in the comments here.
- What is a seismic swarm?
There is an explainer here (4 February 2025): Earthquake swarm beneath the Aegean Sea
With the ongoing complex seismicity, the situation is still evolving and we do not know what the likelihood of an eruption is. The two volcanoes mentioned in the media are Santorini, with two volcanic islands in the centre - Nea Kameni and Palea Kameni, and Kolumbo submarine volcano northeast of Santorini.
Even when magma is moving towards the surface, this doesn’t mean that it will reach the surface and result in an eruption. This can end up just being an intrusion - magma rising through the crust but not erupting. If we were to see clear magmatic signals, we cannot tell what sort of eruption will occur, when it would begin, or how large it will be.
In order to forecast an eruption we use a range of monitoring techniques, and it is very helpful to have previously monitored an eruption at that particular volcano so that we have a better understanding of how it behaves.
There are additional challenges monitoring volcanic areas that are under the sea. We cannot use satellite monitoring methods to detect deformation (ground movement), increases in temperature, physical changes, or gas emissions that are being released into the atmosphere. It is more difficult to install and maintain monitoring equipment, we do not have a visual of the volcano, and we cannot easily directly measure gases.
Experts do have seismic data, but it can take a while to untangle all the clues that it gives us about what is happening.
We will keep looking to the local scientists for updates.
Why do scientists refer to the earthquake swarm as tectonic?
This is a complex situation with both tectonic and magmatic processes giving signals in the form of seismicity. Initially it seems the signals were more tectonic, and over time magmatic signals may have become more clear. It is important to distinguish here that magmatic processes do not mean an eruption. Magma moving kilometres below the surface does not guarantee that it will erupt, and if it does, it does not tell us when.
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Research papers with helpful background information
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Comments and analysis made by experts and science groups outside of Greece
Please keep in mind that while scientists around the world are doing our best to provide insight, groups may be missing information or data. As the complex situation progresses it will likely change, note the dates that these were written. Priority should always be given to information from the local agencies. These are shared to give further comment and context.
CSEM EMSC (Centre Sismologique Euro-Méditerranéen, Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) Earthquake sequence between Santorini Amorgos Islands since January the 27th 2025. There is a ‘Last Update’ time at the top of the page and to the right. https://www.emsc-csem.org/Special_reports/?id=351
Comments and analysis made by experts and science groups outside of Greece
Please keep in mind that while scientists around the world are doing our best to provide insight, groups may be missing information or data. As the complex situation progresses it will likely change, note the dates that these were written. Priority should always be given to information from the local agencies. These are shared to give further comment and context.
CSEM EMSC (Centre Sismologique Euro-Méditerranéen, Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Centre) Earthquake sequence between Santorini Amorgos Islands since January the 27th 2025. There is a ‘Last Update’ time at the top of the page and to the right. https://www.emsc-csem.org/Special_reports/?id=351
Australian National University, An ‘earthquake swarm’ is shaking Santorini. It could persist for months, 7 February 2025: https://science.anu.edu.au/news-events/news/earthquake-swarm-shaking-santorini-it-could-persist-months
GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Questions and answers about the earthquakes near Santorini, 7 February 2025: https://www.gfz.de/en/press/news/details/fragen-und-antworten-zu-den-erdbeben-bei-santorini
INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Italy) update, 5 February 2025: https://ingvterremoti.com/2025/02/05/i-terremoti-a-santorini-isole-cicladi-grecia-febbraio-2025/
Earthquake swarm explainer by Judith A Hubbard and Kyle Bradley, 4 February 2025: https://earthquakeinsights.substack.com/p/earthquake-swarm-beneath-the-aegean
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Thinking about making a plan, just in case
It is important to have a discussion with your household about what you will do and what you might want to take if the time comes to evacuate. There are websites with more information on making a plan (in English): https://getready.govt.nz/prepared/household and here https://www.state.gov/global-community-liaison-office/crisis-management/packing-a-go-bag-and-a-stay-bag/
Here are some items to consider having in a place ready to go in case you need to:
- Cash, credit cards, bank details
- Important documents such as insurance policies, identification, bank account records, Passport(s) & Visas, Marriage, birth, adoption and naturalization certificates saved electronically or in a waterproof, portable container
- Personal medications and medical information (like medical conditions)
- Feminine supplies and personal hygiene items
- Prescription eyeglasses and contact lens solution
- Baby supplies such as infant formula, bottles, diapers, wipes and diaper rash cream
- Pet care items such as medications, identification, printed photographs, water and food for travel
- Important family heirlooms
- Electronics like your phone and charging cables
- Printed emergency contact information and important phone numbers (in case your phone goes flat)
- It is a good idea to take a video and/or photographs around your home, taking a record of all of your belongings
Have a chat about things like where you would go, where you would meet your family in case of an emergency if you are separated, and have a conversation with your neighbours in case you have pets that need to be checked on if you are away from home initially.
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Mental health concerns
We want to acknowledge that this is a distressing time for all involved. We will be keeping an eye out for local resources that take into account the local culture and context, and for now we share some international examples. It is critical to practice self care as it is normal to not feel okay during events like this.
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Municipality of Thira - Santorini (link to Facebook post below)
"Expression of interest for a psychosocial support program of the National Kapodistrian University of Athens"
The Municipality of Thira intends, in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Cohesion and Family and with the support of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, to implement a special psychosocial support program for the children and families of our island.
For this purpose, every Tuesday and Wednesday from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM, it will be implemented on our islanda series of relevant actions for children and parents by specialized health personnel who will travel for this purpose from the Medical School of the National University of Athens to the schools of the Municipality of Thira.
School administrations are requested to inform parents to express their interest, and to declare the number of participants at dep @ thira.gov.gr or crisismed @ outlook.com, for the attention of Ms. Iliana Koukia, Master of Science in Global Health-Disaster Medicine, School of Medicine, NKUA, by Friday, February 21, 2025.
The school units in which the actions will take place will be announced on Friday, February 21, 2025.
Municipality of Thira - Santorini (link to Facebook post below)
"Expression of interest for a psychosocial support program of the National Kapodistrian University of Athens"
The Municipality of Thira intends, in collaboration with the Ministry of Social Cohesion and Family and with the support of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, to implement a special psychosocial support program for the children and families of our island.
For this purpose, every Tuesday and Wednesday from 4:00 PM to 6:00 PM, it will be implemented on our islanda series of relevant actions for children and parents by specialized health personnel who will travel for this purpose from the Medical School of the National University of Athens to the schools of the Municipality of Thira.
School administrations are requested to inform parents to express their interest, and to declare the number of participants at dep @ thira.gov.gr or crisismed @ outlook.com, for the attention of Ms. Iliana Koukia, Master of Science in Global Health-Disaster Medicine, School of Medicine, NKUA, by Friday, February 21, 2025.
The school units in which the actions will take place will be announced on Friday, February 21, 2025.
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“Alert fatigue prevails in Santorini. Island residents affected by constant tremors, try to tune out rumors of disasters to come“ https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/environment/1261857/alert-fatigue-prevails-in-santorini/
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The stress of being under threat: for people who are under threat from an emergency, from Queensland, Australia
“If the threat goes on too long: going into emergency threat stress Because these changes are designed to get us ready for the emergency, if they go on too long, our state of mind and body can be aroused for too long and lose their efficiency. This can interfere with our readiness and then we become stressed by the threat. This can be called emergency threat stress and is common when there is a long lead up to an emergency, a lot of uncertainty about the situation or where the emergency continues without being resolved. If we are to remain in the best state of readiness, we need to recognise and manage the stress so it does not undermine our ability to meet the crisis when it comes. Signs that emergency alert is turning into emergency threat stress are:
Signs that emergency alert is turning into emergency threat stress are:
• Loss of energy, tiredness, physical weakness
• Difficulty thinking clearly, making decisions, planning, setting priorities
• Focussing on details at the expense of the big picture
• Feeling fearful about meeting the crisis, wanting to avoid it
• Thinking about what might happen rather than what needs to be done
• Unrealistic thinking - perhaps it will go away, it might not happen after all
• Losing focus on the real situation, becoming preoccupied by emotions
• Losing sense of bodily needs - working too long or hard without nourishment or rest
• Taking risks, working inefficiently, ineffectively; doing things without proper planning
• Not being able to put emotions aside, being preoccupied by fear, anger, blaming, irritability, tearful, detached, feeling hopeless, giving up.”
“Earthquakes are unpredictable, and people of all ages must endure them and cope with their feelings which can include anxiety, fear, anger and frustration and can be difficult to deal with. You may experience all sorts of symptoms in your mind and body, and these can continue after the earthquake and any after-shocks that happen.” This link from New Zealand has a list of symptoms you may experience and some tips for self care:
